REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE

The subject is influenced in a general manner by the economic, political, physical
and social characteristics of the Memphis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). A
MSA is a geographic area with a significant population nucleus, along with any
adjacent communities that have a high degree of economic and social integration
with that nucleus. Memphis is part of a metropolitan statistical area that includes
The Memphis Metropolitan Statistical Area covers eight counties in three states -
Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas.  The counties which comprise the Memphis
MSA include Shelby County, Tipton County, Fayette County in Tennessee, DeSoto
County, Marshall County, Tate County, and Tunica County in Mississippi, and
Crittenden County in Arkansas.

Memphis is located in the southeast corner of the State of Tennessee.  Memphis is
located 215 miles southeast of Nashville, Tennessee 140 miles east of Little Rock,
Arkansas, 285 miles south of St. Louis, Missouri, and 210 miles north of Jackson,
Mississippi.

The value of real property is influenced by the interaction of four basic forces.
These forces include social trends, economic circumstances, environmental
conditions, and governmental controls and regulations. The interaction of these
four forces influences the value of every parcel of real estate in the market.

STATE OF TENNESSEE


MEMPHIS MSA

Social Trends

Social forces are trends that are exerted primarily through population
characteristics. Real property values are affected not only by population changes
and characteristics, but also by various forms of human activity.

Population and Area:

Population growth trends influence employment growth, income levels, and many
other key demand parameters analyzed in determining commercial real estate
productivity. As shown, the MSA population figures represent 29% of the total
population of Tennessee.  The MSA, state, and US have shown consistent growth
trends over the past 20 years and are anticipated to continue to grow.  The MSA’s
growth will be less than that of the State and US.




Higher Education:

Institutions of higher learning typically are not as vulnerable to economic
downswings, and they help to provide an area with a more solid employment base.  
Colleges and universities located in the city include the University of Memphis
(formerly Memphis State University), Rhodes College (formerly Southwestern at
Memphis), Memphis College of Art, Le Moyne-Owen College, Crichton College,
Christian Brothers University, Baptist College of Health Sciences (formerly Baptist
Memorial Hospital School of Nursing), and the University of Tennessee Health
Science Center (Colleges of Dentistry, Medicine, Nursing, Pharmacy, Graduate
Health Sciences and Allied Health Sciences).

Memphis’s largest institution for higher education is University of Memphis with total
enrollment over 20,000 students.  The chart below details other institutions.



Recreational and Regional Attractions:         

Recreational and regional attractions enhance an area’s quality of life. These
activities may also have a significant economic impact on an area by increasing the
demand for services and retail trade created by visitors.

One of the largest celebrations the city has is Memphis in May. The month-long
series of events promotes Memphis' heritage and outreach of its people far beyond
the city's borders. There are four main events, the Beale Street Music Festival,
International Week, the World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest, and the
Sunset Symphony. The World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest is the
largest pork barbecue cooking contest in the world.

Carnival Memphis, formerly known as the Memphis Cotton Carnival, is an annual
series of parties and festivities in the month of June that salutes various aspects of
Memphis and its industries. An annual King and Queen of Carnival are secretly
selected to reign over Carnival activities. The African-American community staged
a parallel event known as the Cotton Makers Jubilee from 1935 to 1982, when it
merged with Carnival Memphis.

An arts festival, the Cooper-Young Festival, is held annually in September in the
Cooper-Young district of Midtown Memphis. The event draws artists from all over
North America, and includes art sales, contests, and displays.

Memphis has numerous attractions including Audobon Park, Beale Street in
downtown, the Belz Museum of Asian & Judaic Art, Biblical Resource Center &
Museum, Center for Southern Folklore, Children's Museum of Memphis, Chucalissa
Museum, Coooper-Young District, The Cotton Museum and the Memphis Cotton
Exchange, Davie Manor Plantation House, The Dixon Gallery and Gardens,
FedExForum, Fire Museum of Memphis, Graceland, Historic Elmwood Cemetery,
Lichterman Nature Center, Meeman-Shelby Forest State Parl, Memphis Botanic
Garden, Memphis Brooks Museum of Art, Memphis Jewish Community Center,
Memphis Pink Palace Museum & Sharpe Planetarium, Memphis Riverboats,
Memphis Rock ’N’ Soul Museum, Memphis Zoo, Mud Island River Park, National
Civil Rights Museum, National Ornamental Metal Museum, Overton Park, Overton
Square, The Peabody, Putt-Putt Family Park, Shelby Farms Park, Slave
Haven/Burkle Estate, Soulsville: STAX Museum of American Soul Music,South Main
Historic Art District, Southland Park Gaming & Racing, Sun Studio, Tom Lee Park,
Tunica Casinos, and Woodruff-Fontaine House.

The crown jewel in the Memphis outdoors would have to be Shelby Farms Park —
and in the next decade, the Park looks to go from being the best of the city to the
class of the world. With a new Master Plan currently being implemented by the
Shelby Farms Park Conservancy, the Park will undergo transformation in several
phases.

The vision for Shelby Farms Park is “One Park, One Million Trees, Twelve
Landscapes.” The entire community has benefited from the Park for generations —
and future citizens and businesses will be able to get even more out when you
factor in the civic-engagement and economic-development aspects of the bold plan.

Rivers and lakes run rampant throughout the Memphis landscape, bringing the
opportunity for water sports to the city folk. For a mysterious and scenic interaction
with water, visit the Ghost River — a part of the larger Wolf River system that’s
popular with kayak and canoe enthusiasts. Of course, there’s always the Mighty
Mississippi as well, for water sports or just a great view.

Bicyclers also have plenty to love around Memphis. Miles of scenic trails give riders
a variety of options, whether they’re beginners or more advanced cyclists. A
highlight: the cycling route that runs alongside the Mississippi River and through
downtown Memphis — connecting the city to 10 states of bike trails.

For hikers and joggers, there are numerous parks in the area that create a scenic
environment for outdoor exercise. In Shelby Farms, a web of scenic trails stretches
across the 4,500-acre park. Outside Shelby County, there are plenty more parks
that pepper the Mid-South.

Hunting and fishing opportunities also abound in the Memphis area. For deer and
small game, the Meeman-Shelby Forest State Park has an 11,000-acre natural
area, managed by the Tennessee Wildlife Resource Agency.  For those who love
fishing, the nearby Ozark Mountains contain three of the best trout streams in the
country: the White River, North Fork River, and Little Red River.

Memphis has a professional basketball team.  Memphis is home to the NBA’s
Memphis Grizzlies joining the Tigers under the same arena roof, at FedExForum.  
Memphis Tigers are the University of Memphis team which have a strong fan base
in the area and consistently have a strong basketball program.  Memphis is home
to Memphis Redbirds baseball team, a Triple A affiliate of the St. Louis Cardinals.  
For football, the Memphis Tiger Football takes the field at Liberty Bowl Memorial
Stadium. For more than half a century, Memphis has hosted an annual stop on the
PGA Tour, with TPC Southwind hosting the event each summer since 1989.
Memphis Motorsports Park revs up all year long with every form of rubber-meets-
road racing; from dragsters to trucks, from pros to leadfooted weekend warriors.  
And every October, NASCAR fills the seats with a stop on the Nationwide Series
tour.


Economic Forces

Economic forces are the fundamental relationships between current and
anticipated supply and demand and the economic activities in which the population
participates in order to satisfy its wants, needs, and demands through its purchase
power.  

The chart below indicates the employment by sector for both the state and the MSA
per the US bureau of labor.  As shown the overall employment composition for both
the MSA and state are similar and diverse indicating a stable economic base.




All the sectors are within several percentages of each other except manufacturing,
services, and government.  The MSA has a lower percentage of manufacturing
employment than the state.  The MSA has a higher percentage of employment in
the services sector than the state.  The MSA has a lower percentage of
employment in the government sector.  Overall, both employment mixes are
diversified and appear overall in balance and stable.

Industries:                

The chart below shows the major employers in the Memphis MSA.  The largest
employer is FedEx with about 23,000 employees.  The next major employer is
Memphis City Schools.  The major employers are consistent with the sector
employment shown previously.

Unemployment:        
    
The following chart shows the historical unemployment rates for the MSA, state,
and US from 2000 to June 2009.  As shown, the MSA, state, and US unemployment
rates have been historically in line with each other.  In 2008 and 2009,
unemployment rates have increased significantly for the MSA, state, and US.  



Real Estate Market Overview

The following pages show historical figures and trends for the retail, office,
industrial and flex real estate markets in the Memphis MSA.  Costar reports data for
three of the counties comprising the MSA: Shelby County, Desoto County, and
Crittenden County.  Also shown is a chart showing the residential new permits for
the Memphis MSA.  Discussion follows the charts.  

The Memphis retail market has historically had low vacancy.  The most current
reported vacancy rate is less than 5%.  This is excellent considering that the retail
space in terms of rentable SF has increased by 12.6% from 2000 through 2nd
quarter 2008.  Since 2005, there has been overall positive absorption.  Average
rental rates peaked 4th quarter 2006.  Since this time, the rental rates have
decreased slightly.  Overall, the retail market appears healthy.  The figures
reported are up to 2nd quarter 2008.

The office market has consistently had vacancy rates around 11% to 14%.  The
most current reported vacancy rate is 12.4%.  There has been minimal to moderate
growth for new office space with only a 5% increase in rentable SF since 2000.  
There has been overall positive absorption for the period reported with over
2,265,000 SF net absorbed.  Rental rates have seen a steady increase.  The
figures reported are up to 4th quarter 2008.

The Memphis industrial market has seen a 15% increase in rentable square
footage from 2000 to 4th quarter 2008 totaling over 23 million SF of new space.  
The vacancy rate for industrial properties has consistently ranged from 13% to
17%.  As of 4th quarter 2008, the industrial market’s vacancy was 13.6%.  Overall
there has been over 24 million SF of rentable space absorbed into the market;
however, in 4th quarter 2008, there was negative 959,000 SF.  Rental rates have
consistently been between $2.60/SF to almost $3.00/SF.  The figures reported are
up to 4th quarter 2008.

The flex market represents the smallest of the markets reported.  The flex market
has had high vacancy levels, over 20%.  Overall there has been about 635,000 SF
absorbed into the market over the period reported.  Rental rates peaked 4th
quarter 2006 and have seen a downward trended since.  

The residential market in Memphis, like most of the residential markets throughout
the greater region, has seen a decline due to the national recession affecting the
regional and local economy.  Building permits saw a steady increase through
2006.  In 2007, the new permits decreased.  And in 2008, new permits decreased
drastically.   

Environmental Forces

Environmental forces are both natural and manmade forces that influence real
property values. Some environmental forces include climactic conditions, natural
barriers to future development, primary transportation systems, and the nature and
desirability of the immediate areas surrounding a property.

Transportation:         

Memphis has the world’s leading cargo airport, five class-one railroads, the U.S.’s
4th-largest inland port, seven interstates and U.S. highways and an abundance of
logistics support-service providers.

The Memphis International Airport is the world’s busiest air cargo airport. As a
passenger hub for Delta Airlines and a SuperHub for FedEx, Memphis International
is the only dual passenger and cargo hub in the world..

■Shipped 3.8 million metric tons in 2008
■9 all-cargo airlines
■World’s largest mail processing center
■One of the 10 fastest-growing airports in the U.S.
■36th busiest passenger airport
■3rd largest UPS sorting facility in the US
■Home to the largest National Guard Facility ever built in the United States
Roads

A critical part of Memphis’ intermodal infrastructure is the ability to take cargo from
planes and barges and quickly distribute these via truck.

■The nation’s  3rd-busiest trucking corridor (I-40 between Little Rock and
Memphis) connects the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts and runs directly through
Memphis.
■Likewise, I-55 is one of America’s primary north/south corridor for the Midwest.
■Memphis is the Half way point of the new 2,600-mile, I-69 superhighway
connecting Canada to Mexico currently under construction.
■Memphis is the starting point of the new Interstate 22 Corridor, a straight shot to
Birmingham and Atlanta

Rail still remains the primary artery for the flow of goods from all major North
American deep-water seaports on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts to the
continent’s interior. Memphis, a city built around the railroad, provides access to
North America via train within less than 48 hours.

■3rd-largest rail center in the United States behind Chicago and St. Louis
■One of only five U.S. cities served by 5 or more of the U.S.’s 6 long-haul Class I
rail systems (Norfolk Southern, Burlington Northern/Santa Fe, Union
Pacific/Southern Pacific, CSX and Canadian National)
■Home to six fully operational rail yards with a total current container capacity of
nearly one million annual lifts
■By train, Memphis can reach 45 states (including Canada & Mexico) within 2 days
■Single system shipment to all 48 contiguous states, Alaska, Mexico, and Canada
■Memphis is home to five of the largest wide-span cranes in the country because
of BNSF’s $200 million newly expanded intermodal facility

The Mississippi River has remained a critical intermodal advantage of the Memphis
area

■Memphis is the 2nd-largest port on the Mississippi and the 4th-largest inland port
in the U.S.
■The largest still water harbor on Mississippi
■Port of Memphis handles more than 18 million tons annually
■The International Port of Memphis is also home to the Valero petroleum refinery,
the only refinery in the State of Tennessee.

Governmental Forces

Governmental, political and legal actions at all levels have an impact on property
values. The legal climate of a particular time or in a particular place may
overshadow the natural market forces of supply and demand.  One aspect to
governmental force is police power and crime.  Memphis has high crime rates
relative to other cities of its size.

Outlook

Our review of the above data indicates that the Memphis metropolitan area has
historically had a stable and growing economy and has been a growing area with a
good educational base.  Lately, the nationwide economic recession has impacted
the area.  This said, on a long term horizon, the economic outlook for the Memphis
MSA is favorable for the overall success of the subject.
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